Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.29% to settle at Rs 341.35, supported by ongoing supply concerns and historically low inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses. LME aluminium stocks declined further to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, reinforcing concerns over near-term metal availability. Additional support came after Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia.

However, gains remained limited as improving production in the Middle East and higher Chinese exports continued to ease broader supply concerns. Fundamentally, global aluminium supply trends remained mixed. The International Aluminium Institute reported that global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, mainly due to a sharp one-third decline in Gulf production. At the same time, daily aluminium production outside China rebounded 1.6% month-on-month in July, driven by production resumptions in the Middle East and Iceland, along with capacity expansions and commissioning activities in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at Japan’s three major ports declined 7.8% month-on-month to 220,300 tonnes, indicating healthy regional demand. China continued to expand exports, with unwrought aluminium and aluminium product shipments reaching a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, while first-half exports rose 16.3% year-on-year. In contrast, China’s aluminium imports declined 17.4% year-on-year due to unfavourable import economics, although domestic primary aluminium production increased 4.7% to 3.98 million tonnes.

From a technical perspective, aluminium witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 3.12% to 3,881 contracts while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs 339.3, followed by Rs 337.3. Resistance is placed at Rs 342.5, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 343.7.