Natural Gas yesterday concluded with an increase of 1.68% at Rs 265.8, bolstered by projections suggesting consistent demand in the forthcoming fortnight. Government data indicated a storage build of 71 bcf for the week ending September 5, surpassing last year’s figure of 36 bcf and exceeding the five-year average of 56 bcf. In spite of the increased storage levels, the persistent supply tightness continues to serve as a significant support factor, with average gas production in the Lower 48 states declining to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in September, a decrease from the record high of 108.3 bcfd observed in August.

This moderation in output is fostering market stability, while a 6% surplus compared to the five-year average indicates a relatively sufficient level of storage. Weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will be warmer than usual through at least September 30, which is anticipated to increase the demand for power generation to support air conditioning usage.

LSEG anticipates a modest increase in gas demand, forecasting a rise from 102.5 bcfd this week to 103.1 bcfd next week, indicative of stable consumption patterns, including exports. The EIA anticipates that U.S. natural gas production will reach its zenith in 2025 at 106.6 bcfd, subsequently declining in 2026, whereas consumption is forecasted to achieve an unprecedented 91.5 bcfd in 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a -5.4% decrease in open interest, which has settled at 26,591, while prices have increased by Rs 4.4. At present, Natural Gas finds support at Rs 260.2, with a potential examination of Rs 254.5 should the market experience further corrections. Resistance appears to be positioned at Rs 268.9, and a significant breakthrough above this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 271.9.