Natural gas prices decreased by 1.85%, closing at 254.2, influenced by sufficient storage levels and predictions of milder weather, which are anticipated to reduce demand in the short term. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states has decreased marginally to 107.4 bcfd in September, a decline from August’s record high of 108.3 bcfd; however, production levels continue to be historically robust.

At present, storage levels stand approximately 6% above the five-year average, creating a favorable cushion in anticipation of the peak demand season. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates that U.S. natural gas production and demand will reach unprecedented levels in 2025, followed by a decline in 2026. Forecasts indicate that dry gas output will increase from 103.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024 to 106.6 bcfd in 2025. Concurrently, consumption is projected to rise from 90.5 bcfd in 2024 to 91.5 bcfd in 2025.

LNG exports are projected to increase significantly, anticipated to hit 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, a rise from the record 11.9 bcfd achieved in 2024. During the week ending September 12, energy firms injected 90 bcf of gas into storage, exceeding expectations of 81 bcf. This figure is significantly higher than last year’s build of 56 bcf and also surpasses the five-year average of 74 bcf.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 13.71% decrease in open interest to Rs 23,845, coinciding with a price drop of Rs 4.8. Support is identified at Rs 251.1, with additional downside potential towards Rs 247.9, while resistance stands at Rs 258.9, beyond which prices could approach Rs 263.5.