Copper yesterday settled lower by 0.64% at Rs 952.55 as the commencement of China’s week-long National Day holiday coincided with the quarter-end, prompting profit-taking following the record highs reached last week. The decline ensued after a rally driven by diminished supply expectations from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, which concurrently reduced the LME cash-to-three-month discount to $26 per ton, marking its lowest level since July.

Meanwhile, China’s Yangshan copper premium decreased by 6% to $50 a ton, marking its lowest point in six weeks, indicative of weakened import demand in anticipation of the holidays. In August, Chile’s copper production experienced a year-on-year decline of 9.9%, totaling 423,643 tons. Concurrently, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a week-on-week decrease of 3.8%.

Global supply concerns persist as Goldman Sachs has revised its mine output forecast for 2025 and 2026, anticipating a total reduction of 525,000 tons from Grasberg. Citi has adjusted its near-term copper price forecasts to $10,500 per ton and anticipates a rally toward $12,000 by 2025, with the possibility of reaching $14,000 due to tightening supply and an expected market deficit. The International Copper Study Group indicated a surplus of 57,000 tons in July, while also noting a contraction in the oversupply relative to the previous year.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 1.73% increase in open interest to 7,529, alongside a price decline of Rs 6.15. Copper is currently supported at Rs 946.1, and a decline below this level could lead to a movement toward Rs 939.4. Resistance is identified at Rs 961.2, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 969.6.