Copper prices increased by 0.39% to close at Rs 1003.25, reflecting upward movements on the LME where prices reached $11,000 a ton — the highest level in more than 16 months — driven by supply disruptions and a resurgence of speculative inflows. Concerns regarding shortages have escalated following Teck Resources’ reduction of its long-term production forecast at the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile. Additionally, operations at Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in Congo, and El Teniente in Chile have encountered temporary interruptions.

Disruptions are projected to eliminate approximately 591,000 tons of copper production by 2026, leading Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America to adjust their price forecasts upward. LME copper inventories have decreased to 139,475 tons, marking the lowest level since July, which indicates a tightening supply. Concurrently, the cash-to-three-month discount has narrowed to $13 per ton. On the demand side, China’s refined copper production experienced a decline of 5% in early September, while copper imports decreased by 11.5% in August, totaling 425,000 tons.

In contrast, concentrate imports saw an increase of 8%, reaching 2.76 million tons. In the interim, Aurubis, recognized as Europe’s largest smelter, has increased its 2026 premium by 38%, reaching a historic $315 per ton, indicative of robust demand projections. The International Copper Study Group anticipates a refined copper surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025, followed by a shift to a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a decline in open interest of 11.95% to 7,168, while prices have increased by Rs 3.9. Copper is currently supported at Rs 994, and a decline beneath this level may lead to a test of Rs 984.8. Resistance is identified at Rs 1,019.4, with potential for further gains towards Rs 1,035.6 if momentum builds.