Natural gas prices experienced a decline of 5.16%, closing at Rs 275.6. This drop can be attributed to high storage levels and predictions of mild weather extending into late October, which are anticipated to restrict both heating and cooling demand. The recent decline interrupted a two-week upward trend, as prices decreased by more than 4% this week. Elevated production levels earlier in the year have facilitated injections into storage that exceed typical volumes, resulting in inventories approximately 4% above the five-year seasonal average.

U.S. utilities injected 80 billion cubic feet of gas into storage for the week ending October 3, 2025, marginally surpassing market expectations of a 76 Bcf build. This increase brings total stocks to 3,641 Bcf, which is 23 Bcf higher than the same period last year and 157 Bcf above the five-year average. Average U.S. output in the Lower 48 states has decreased to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day thus far in October, a modest decline from the 107.4 bcfd recorded in September.

In the interim, LNG exports continue to demonstrate strength, averaging 16.1 bcfd this month, approaching record levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates unprecedented levels of gas production and demand in 2025, followed by a modest decrease in 2026. Specifically, dry gas output is projected to hit 106.6 billion cubic feet per day, while consumption is expected to reach 91.5 bcfd in the upcoming year.

Currently, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 22.31% increase in open interest to 38,523, alongside a price decline of Rs 15. Natural gas establishes a support level at Rs 270.2, with a potential decline below this point likely to challenge Rs 264.7. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 285.9, and an upward movement beyond this threshold could propel prices towards Rs 296.1. Natural gas experienced a decline, influenced by sufficient storage capacities and predictions of temperate weather conditions.