Copper prices experienced a notable increase of 3.56%, closing at Rs 1003.5. This rebound follows a period of recent declines, driven by US President Donald Trump’s optimistic remarks regarding trade negotiations with China, which alleviated concerns about an extended trade conflict. The recovery ensued after a significant 4% decline on Friday, prompted by Trump’s tariff threats concerning

Chinese goods. Supply constraints persisted in bolstering prices, as disruptions in key producing nations such as Chile and Indonesia curtailed output—Codelco disclosed its lowest monthly production in more than twenty years, while Indonesia’s Grasberg mine faced ongoing challenges following a tragic accident. Global inventories across LME, SHFE, and Comex total approximately 556,000 tons, with nearly 50% concentrated in Comex, suggesting a localized surplus in the United States.

Reports says that the refined copper market experienced a surplus of 57,000 tons in July, in contrast to a deficit of 14,000 tons in June.  In the initial seven months of the year, the market experienced a surplus of 101,000 tons, a reduction from the 401,000-ton surplus observed in the previous year. The ICSG anticipates a surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025, which will be succeeded by a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026. In September, China experienced a 6.2% decline in copper concentrate imports, totaling 2.59 million tons, attributed to decreased exports from Indonesia. Nevertheless, the overall imports for 2024 reflect a year-on-year increase of 7.7%.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a decline in open interest of 8.27%, bringing it down to 6,590. Copper exhibits support at Rs 963.3; a decline beneath this level may lead to a test of Rs 923.1. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 1026.3, with a breach above potentially propelling prices toward Rs 1049.1.