Natural gas prices declined by 1.52% to Rs 259.9, as forecasts of mild weather and adequate storage levels alleviated worries regarding supply constraints. Nonetheless, losses were limited by a reduction in production alongside robust liquefied natural gas exports. Projections suggest above-average temperatures persisting until late October, thereby postponing the emergence of substantial heating requirements.

It is observed that significant cooling is unlikely to materialize until the last week of the month, which will likely maintain subdued consumption in the short term. Data indicates that gas output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day in October, a decrease from September’s 107.4 bcfd and below the record high of 108 bcfd observed in August. U.S. utilities added 80 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas to storage for the week ending October 10, resulting in inventories totaling 3,721 Bcf — 0.7% higher than the previous year and 4.3% above the five-year average.

In the interim, LNG exports have delivered robust support, with flows averaging 16.3 bcfd and daily feedgas achieving a six-month peak of 17.0 bcfd following the restart of Berkshire Hathaway’s Cove Point terminal. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has projected that by 2025, gas production will reach a record high of 107.1 billion cubic feet per day, while consumption is expected to be 91.6 billion cubic feet per day.

From a technical perspective, natural gas continues to experience significant selling pressure, as evidenced by a 2.73% increase in open interest, reaching 40,053 contracts. Immediate support stands at Rs 256.1, with subsequent levels at Rs 252.4. Resistance is identified at Rs 266.6 and Rs 273.4.