Copper prices increased by 0.46% to close at Rs 994.6, buoyed by positive sentiment regarding U.S.–China relations and anticipations of new policy support from Beijing. Prices increased following the White House’s announcement of an impending meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Concurrently, China’s Fourth Plenum reiterated its commitment to enhancing domestic consumption and fostering technological innovation. Supply concerns also supported the market, as copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 4.9% week-on-week.

Simultaneously, disruptions in mining operations in Indonesia and Chile persisted, further constraining supply. Indonesia is poised to permit Amman Mineral International to recommence copper concentrate exports, subsequent to previous limitations. However, the export halt by Freeport-McMoRan from Indonesia, along with production disruptions at the Grasberg mine, has constrained global shipments. In September, China experienced a 2.7% decrease in copper production compared to the previous month, alongside a 6.2% reduction in copper concentrate imports, attributed to the expiration of the export license at Grasberg.

In September, imports of refined copper into China increased by 14.1%, indicating robust downstream demand, even in the face of declining premiums in Yunnan. On the global front, the International Copper Study Group reported a surplus of 57,000 tons in July and projected a refined copper surplus of 178,000 tons in 2025, followed by a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 23.54% decline in open interest to 2,969, alongside a price increase of Rs 4.6. Copper is currently supported at Rs 988.9, and a decline below this level may lead to a test of Rs 983.1. Resistance is identified at Rs 999.6, with additional upside potential extending toward Rs 1004.5.