Copper prices declined by 0.94% to Rs 1011.75 as market participants responded to the conclusion of trade discussions between the U.S. and China, which provided ambiguous signals regarding market sentiment. President Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on China, while Beijing pledged to ease rare earth export restrictions and resume soybean purchases.

However, concerns persist regarding global demand, particularly in light of cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell following a 25-bps U.S. rate cut. In the face of short-term weakness, copper prices have discovered a degree of underlying support stemming from a tightening supply scenario. Major producers such as Glencore and Anglo American have reported a decline in output during the first nine months of 2025. Additionally, mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia, notably at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine, have limited shipments.

In September, China experienced a 6.2% decline in copper concentrate imports, totaling 2.59 million tons. This decrease can be attributed to diminished exports from Indonesia, which were impacted by the expiration of licenses and a tragic mudslide that necessitated production stoppages.  The International Copper Study Group has projected a surplus of 178,000 tonnes in the refined copper market for 2025, which will be succeeded by a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026. Global mine production is projected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, whereas refined usage is anticipated to rise by 3% and 2.1% in the same years, respectively.

Copper is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 12.55% increase in open interest to 9,468 lots, coinciding with a price decline of Rs 9.65. Support is positioned at Rs 1003.9, beneath which prices may approach Rs 996.1. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 1021, and a breakout above this level could propel prices towards Rs 1030.3.