Aluminium concluded the day with an increase of 0.57% at Rs 271.8, bolstered by constrained near-term supply and robust long-term demand expectations. Prices increased as aluminium inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined by 3.89% compared to the previous week, suggesting consistent consumption patterns. Supply concerns have intensified following Century Aluminium’s announcement of production cuts at its Iceland smelter due to an electrical failure. Additionally, Alcoa has opted to permanently close its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia, citing a decline in bauxite quality.
The ongoing disruptions, coupled with China’s stringent annual aluminium output limit of 45 million tonnes — which is anticipated to be exceeded this year — have maintained a constrained supply sentiment. In the global context, primary aluminium production experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.9% in September, reaching a total of 6.08 million tonnes, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute. In the interim, aluminium inventories at Japan’s principal ports rose by 1.8% on a month-on-month basis, reaching a total of 341,300 tonnes. In September, China’s unwrought aluminium exports reached 521,000 tonnes, reflecting a minor decline from August. Conversely, imports experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 35.4%, totaling 360,000 tonnes, which highlights strong domestic demand.
Beijing’s adjustment of its annual metals output growth target to 1.5% for 2025–2026, down from the previous 5%, has bolstered bullish sentiment by indicating a future supply constraint. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its aluminium outlook, projecting a decline in prices to $2,350 per tonne in Q4 2026, down from the current $2,700, as it expects a slowdown in demand growth in the near future.
Aluminium is currently experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 1.88% increase in open interest, bringing the total to 3,899. The metal encounters support levels at Rs 270 and Rs 268.3, with resistance identified at Rs 272.9 and Rs 274.1.