Copper prices experienced a slight decline of 0.16%, settling at 1009.2, as indications of weak demand and a robust US dollar momentarily eclipsed concerns regarding supply. China’s official manufacturing PMI indicated a seventh consecutive month of contraction, highlighting a decline in industrial demand due to diminished consumer spending and increasing global trade protectionism.

Nonetheless, copper prices exhibited an upward trend on a monthly basis, bolstered by persistent supply disruptions and diminished production from significant producers such as Glencore, Anglo American, and Freeport-McMoRan. The catastrophic mudslide at Freeport’s Indonesian mine, which represents more than 3% of global supply, necessitated a temporary halt in operations, thereby exacerbating market constraints. The International Copper Study Group has forecasted a surplus of approximately 178,000 tonnes for 2025, which will be succeeded by a deficit of 150,000 tonnes in 2026.

Mine production is anticipated to increase by 1.4% in the coming year and by 2.3% in 2026. Refined copper consumption is projected to increase by 3% in 2025 and by 2.1% in 2026. In the interim, China’s imports of copper concentrate experienced a decline of 6.2% in September, attributed to diminished exports from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine following the expiration of its export license.

The market experienced renewed selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 3.57% to 9,807, while prices declined by Rs 1.65. Copper currently has support at Rs 1006.9, and a decline beneath this level may challenge the Rs 1004.4 mark. On the upside, resistance is identified at Rs 1012.7, and a movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 1016.