Crude oil prices experienced a decline of 0.81%, settling at Rs 5,262, as apprehensions regarding diminishing demand and an expanding global supply surplus persisted, impacting market sentiment. Heightened inventories and augmented output from both OPEC+ and non-member nations have intensified concerns regarding oversupply. Saudi Arabia’s choice to reduce December crude prices for Asian purchasers highlighted the abundance of supply in the market. OPEC+ has sanctioned a slight increase in production for December, yet it has exhibited prudence by halting additional escalations in early 2026.

Global oil demand has increased by approximately 850,000 barrels per day this year, falling slightly short of JP Morgan’s projections, primarily attributed to muted U.S. consumption and diminished transport activity. On the supply side, Libya intends to increase production from 1.4 million bpd at present to 1.6 million next year, with a long-term goal of reaching 2 million within five years, thereby exacerbating future supply concerns.

U.S. crude inventories experienced a significant increase of 5.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31, surpassing expectations considerably. In contrast, gasoline and distillate stocks saw a decline, offering only marginal support. OPEC’s latest report upheld its consistent demand outlook while emphasizing that the rise in OPEC+ output—an increase of 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd—has notably diminished the anticipated supply deficit for 2026.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 6.97% decline in open interest to 12,570, coinciding with a price decrease of Rs 43. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 5,206, with additional support at Rs 5,149. Resistance is observed around Rs 5,347; a breakout beyond this level could propel prices toward Rs 5,431.