Crude oil prices experienced a decline, closing 1.25% lower at Rs 5197, influenced by renewed diplomatic initiatives between the United States and Ukraine that have sparked optimism regarding a potential peace framework, which could lead to an increase in global supply. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s remarks regarding collaboration with Washington on a plan to conclude the conflict have contributed to a decline in sentiment. Anticipations of extended uncertainty regarding monetary policy have similarly restrained risk appetite.

Goldman Sachs has contributed to the prevailing bearish sentiment by forecasting a downward trend in oil prices through 2026, driven by a robust supply influx. However, the firm indicated that Brent prices could potentially recover above $70 in 2026–27 should there be a more significant reduction in Russian output. OPEC+ has maintained its December output increase at 137,000 bpd, with a pause anticipated for the first quarter of the upcoming year. US inventory data presented a mixed scenario: crude stocks increased by 6.4 million barrels in the week ending November 7.

A subsequent report revealed a significant decline of 3.426 million barrels for the week concluding on November 14. Stocks at the Cushing hub experienced a modest decline, whereas gasoline inventories saw an increase of 2.327 million barrels, and distillate levels rose slightly. The EIA has revised its forecast for US production, projecting an average output of a record 13.59 million bpd this year, followed by a slight decline in the subsequent year.

Globally, supply is anticipated to reach 106 million bpd, surpassing consumption, which stands at 104.1 million bpd. Crude oil is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 6.85% increase in open interest. Support is positioned at Rs 5139; a decline below this level may lead to a test of Rs 5082. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 5260, with a breakout potentially reaching Rs 5324.