Copper yesterday settled 0.39% lower at Rs 999.15 as funds booked profits on long positions. However, sentiment remained buoyed by expectations of a U.S. rate cut next month and a weaker dollar. Market participants were keenly anticipating China’s industrial production data to gain clearer insights into demand, as the nation represents over half of the world’s primary copper consumption. Downside appeared constrained in light of tightening supply indicators, as Chile’s Codelco suggested a historic premium of $330 per ton for shipments to South Korea, marginally exceeding the $325 per ton extended to European purchasers.

Meanwhile, global supply concerns persisted, even as Freeport-McMoRan reiterated its plans to resume production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine by July 2026, following the deadly pit-flooding incident in September. In China, copper cathode imports experienced a significant decline, totaling 279,944 tons in October, which represents a decrease of 22.1% year-on-year and 15.7% month-on-month, indicative of diminished inbound demand.

In October, China’s refined copper production experienced an 8.9% year-on-year increase, yet it saw a month-on-month decline of 4.9%, reaching a two-month low. Concurrently, the global refined copper market reported a deficit of 51,000 tons in September, contrasting with a surplus of 41,000 tons in the preceding month, according to data.

Goldman Sachs has revised its price forecast for December 2025 to $10,610 per ton, upholding a long-term optimistic outlook with projections indicating a rise to $15,000 per ton by 2035, driven by diminishing resources and increasing demand. The market is experiencing a phase of long liquidation, as evidenced by a 20.46% decline in open interest, bringing it down to 3204. Support stands at Rs 997.5, with additional weakness anticipated toward Rs 995.8. Resistance is positioned at Rs 1001.9, and a breakout may propel prices to Rs 1004.6.