Zinc concluded the day with a modest increase of 0.03%, reaching Rs 297.35. This uptick was underpinned by a diminishing global surplus, although the ascent was tempered by escalating LME inventories. According to data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market surplus decreased to 20,300 tons in September, a decline from the 32,700 tons recorded in August. In the initial three quarters of 2025, the refined zinc surplus reached 120,000 tons, surpassing the 107,000-ton surplus noted during the corresponding timeframe in the previous year, indicating a balance that remains loose yet is progressively tightening.

Nonetheless, the potential for upward movement was limited as LME-registered zinc stocks experienced a significant increase, reaching 47,425 tons, which represents a 40% rise since early November, thereby alleviating immediate supply worries. Despite this increase, the cash–three-month premium around $135/ton suggests ongoing tightness in the immediate market. The dynamics of production in China have similarly impacted market sentiment. In October, zinc production reached an unprecedented level of 665,000 tons, despite a decline in domestic demand attributed to ongoing challenges within the property sector.

In October, exports surged to 8,519 tons, reflecting a remarkable 243.8% month-over-month increase, as smelters shifted their metal supplies to international markets in response to the tightening conditions in the LME market. In September, refined zinc production experienced a month-on-month decline of 4%, yet it exhibited a year-on-year increase exceeding 20%. Cumulatively, output has risen by nearly 9% year-on-year for the January to September timeframe. Production is anticipated to rise once more in October, attributed to the resumption of operations and additional supply from key smelting regions.

There is a clear indication of renewed buying interest, as open interest increased by 3.64% to 2,480, while prices experienced a slight uptick of Rs 0.1. Support is established at Rs 295.7, beneath which a test of Rs 294 could occur. Resistance is positioned at Rs 299.1, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 300.8.