Crude oil experienced an increase of 1.87%, concluding at Rs 5,290, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and a complex interplay of supply factors that bolstered prices. Market sentiment improved as uncertainties arose about the effectiveness of the new U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict, with EU officials indicating that Russia demonstrated “no real intent” toward peace. Concurrently, Ukraine indicated a readiness to progress with U.S.-supported peace conditions, while diplomatic interactions among the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine sustained heightened volatility.

On the supply front, OPEC+ is anticipated to maintain its current output levels, while CPC has resumed oil loadings following a brief suspension due to a drone attack. U.S. inventory data presented a nuanced scenario: crude stocks increased by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels in the week ending November 21, surpassing expectations, while gasoline and distillate inventories experienced moderate gains. Cushing stocks experienced a decline of 68,000 barrels, while refinery utilization increased to 92.3%.

Net U.S. crude imports experienced a significant rise of 1.05 million bpd. Concerns regarding global balance also influenced sentiment. Prominent entities including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the IEA have cautioned about a prolonged surplus extending into 2026, anticipating that global supply will surpass demand by more than 4 million bpd.

Crude oil is currently experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a decline in open interest of 8.63% to 14,645, alongside a price increase of Rs 97. Support is identified at Rs 5,236, with additional decline anticipated toward Rs 5,182. Resistance is established at Rs 5,320, and a breach of this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 5,350.