Crude oil ended the day unchanged at Rs 5,324, as market participants processed the results of the recent OPEC+ meeting alongside a consistent flow of supply-related information from both US and international agencies. OPEC+ has reaffirmed its decision to maintain the current production levels for the first quarter of the upcoming year, thereby extending the three-month pause that was initially announced in October. This decision comes in light of concerns regarding the uneven recovery of demand and the looming possibility of oversupply in 2026. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman characterized the meeting as a pivotal moment, emphasizing the endorsement of a novel framework to assess the maximum production capacities of member states.

This evaluation is set to take place from January to September 2026, establishing the foundation for new output baselines starting in 2027. In the interim, the dynamics of US supply persist in exerting pressure on market sentiment. Data from the EIA indicates that US crude production reached a historic high of 13.84 million bpd in September, propelled by robust performance in New Mexico and the offshore Gulf region.

Inventory data presented a nuanced scenario: US crude stocks experienced an increase of 2.8 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories saw significant growth, indicating strong refinery activity with utilization climbing to 92.3%. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook suggests that US output is projected to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, with only a modest decline anticipated for the following year.

Crude oil is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 1.51% increase in open interest to 14,079, while prices have remained stable. Support is identified at Rs 5,272, with additional downside potential toward Rs 5,221. Conversely, resistance is established at Rs 5,383, and a breach above this level could propel prices toward Rs 5,443.