Copper increased by 0.34% to Rs 1097.05 as market sentiment strengthened in response to Citi’s optimistic price forecast and the backing of a depreciating U.S. dollar in anticipation of the forthcoming Fed rate cut. Citi has adjusted its average price forecast for the second quarter of next year to $13,000, with an optimistic scenario projecting $15,000, attributing this revision to robust macroeconomic-driven fund purchasing and a constriction in supply. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9.2% to 88,905 tons, bolstering expectations of supply constraints.

Rio Tinto has raised its 2025 production forecast to a range of 860,000–875,000 tons, attributing this adjustment to an increase in output at Oyu Tolgoi. Concurrently, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 LME price outlook upward to $10,710. Negotiations regarding supply between Chinese smelters and miners are currently under pressure, with miners exerting significant pricing power. This dynamic has compelled smelters to reduce their output by more than 10% in 2026 in response to declining processing fees.

In October, Chile experienced a 7% year-over-year decline in copper production, which exacerbates existing global supply concerns. The refined copper market experienced a deficit of 51,000 tons in September, a notable shift from the surplus observed in August, according to data. However, year-to-date, the market continues to exhibit a modest surplus. In November, China’s copper imports declined for the second consecutive month, totaling 427,000 tons, indicative of a diminished import appetite in the context of elevated global prices. Yangshan premiums decreased to $32, as Comex warehouse stocks increased significantly due to traders capitalizing on arbitrage opportunities.

Copper concentrate imports increased to 2.53 million tons, highlighting consistent demand from smelters. There was a notable increase in fresh buying, accompanied by a rise in open interest of 1.23%. Support stands at Rs 1088.9, with a potential decline toward Rs 1080.6. Resistance is positioned at Rs 1104.7, with a potential breakout likely to propel gains towards Rs 1112.2.