Natural gas experienced a significant decline of 8.01%, settling at Rs 448.9, as forecasts indicated a trend towards milder weather in the upcoming fortnight, thereby diminishing expectations for heating demand. Near-record U.S. output, ample storage levels, and declining global gas prices contributed to the downturn. European nations have affirmed their intentions to phase out Russian LNG imports by 2027, thereby strengthening ongoing initiatives to diversify their energy supply sources.

In November, U.S. LNG exports experienced a significant increase of 40% year-on-year, totaling 10.7 million tonnes. Furthermore, exports for 2025 have already approached approximately 15 bcm, as producers enhance their shipment activities. Data indicated that utilities withdrew 12 bcf of gas in the week ending November 28, marking the third consecutive weekly draw, albeit slightly below the anticipated 18 bcf decline.

U.S. gas stocks currently total 3,923 bcf, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the previous year, yet remaining 5.1% above the five-year average, indicating a state of ample supply. Speculators reduced their net long positions by 23,064, indicating a more subdued market perspective, while Baker Hughes noted a minor decline in gas rigs to 129.

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates unprecedented U.S. output and demand in 2025, forecasting dry gas production to increase to 107.1 bcfd and consumption to reach 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are projected to increase to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Natural gas continues to experience significant long liquidation, evidenced by a 50.87% decline in open interest. Support is positioned at Rs 438.4, and a breach beneath this level could potentially lead to a decline towards Rs 427.8. Resistance is established at Rs 464.7, with additional upward potential toward Rs 480.4.