Aluminium prices concluded the session with a slight decline of 0.64% at Rs 278.9, reflecting the overall weakness in the broader base metals market as investors processed recent remarks from the Federal Reserve and reevaluated the interest rate projections for 2026. Despite the decline, the downside remained constrained, bolstered by enhancing demand prospects and ongoing global supply limitations. Beijing has indicated new stimulus measures intended to stabilize the property sector, a development that may enhance demand for aluminium utilized in construction, transportation, and manufacturing.

On the supply side, China, the world’s largest producer, is nearing its government-imposed annual capacity cap of approximately 45 million tonnes, which limits potential for additional output growth. Supply pressures were exacerbated by delays in new smelter projects in Indonesia, attributed to elevated energy costs and regulatory challenges, alongside the suspension of one potline at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter due to equipment failure.

Reports indicated a constrained supply environment, as global producers aimed for USD 190–203 per tonne from Japanese buyers for shipments scheduled between January and March, a significant increase compared to the current quarter. Inventories tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2.5% over the week, underscoring the constraints on supply. In terms of macroeconomic indicators, global primary aluminium production experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in October.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 6.51% decline in open interest to 2,914, coinciding with a price decrease of Rs 1.8. Aluminium exhibits support at Rs 277.2, with a breach below this level potentially leading to a test of Rs 275.5. Resistance is identified at Rs 281.4, and an upward movement could drive prices towards Rs 283.9.