Copper prices maintained their upward trajectory, closing up by 0.67 percent at Rs 1,113.35, fueled by ongoing worries regarding potential supply shortages that have spurred speculative buying activity. LME copper has experienced a rally of approximately 33 percent this year, achieving consecutive record highs in recent weeks. This surge is driven by expectations that mine disruptions and a tighter refined supply may result in deficits by 2026.

In line with this perspective, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2026 copper price forecast to USD 11,400 per metric ton, attributing this revision to a diminished probability of refined copper tariffs in early 2026 and enhanced affordability dynamics. Supply data continues to present a mixed picture.

In October, Peru experienced a year-on-year increase in copper production of 4.8 percent, reaching a total of 248,192 tonnes. For the period from January to October, production rose by 3 percent, amounting to 2.30 million tonnes. In November, China’s copper imports experienced a consecutive decline, falling by 2.51 percent, as high prices dampened purchasing enthusiasm. The Yangshan premium has also softened, suggesting a diminished demand for imported metal. Nonetheless, there is a growing anticipation of a more constrained refined supply, as Chinese smelters have consented to reduce production by 10 percent in 2026 to mitigate adverse processing fees.

From a technical perspective, the market indicates short covering, evidenced by a 2.41 percent decline in open interest alongside a price increase of Rs 7.45, which implies the unwinding of bearish positions. Support is identified at Rs 1,107.6, with a breach beneath this level indicating potential movement toward Rs 1,101.9. Resistance is established at Rs 1,119, and an upward movement could drive prices toward Rs 1,124.7.