Crude oil prices experienced a modest increase of 0.22%, closing at Rs 5,114, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed apprehensions regarding possible supply disruptions. Sentiment improved following the United States’ decision to implement a complete halt on maritime traffic associated with sanctioned oil tankers connected to Venezuela, in response to the confiscation of a blacklisted tanker. Concurrently, Washington indicated a move towards stricter sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector, while the European Union expanded its sanctions list by including an additional 41 vessels, thereby heightening the examination of Russia’s shadow fleet.

Fundamentally, the market continues to be burdened by high levels of global supply. OPEC+ has persisted in its efforts to restore production levels, achieving a group output of 43.06 million barrels per day in November. Concurrently, non-OPEC producers, particularly in the Americas, have maintained robust growth in their production capabilities.

The International Energy Agency maintains its forecast of a significant surplus in 2026, albeit with a slight reduction in its estimate to 3.84 million bpd, attributing this adjustment to enhanced demand growth and somewhat diminished supply expectations as a result of sanctions. In the United States, crude inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, surpassing forecasts, with significant reductions observed at the Cushing hub, thereby offering near-term support.

Crude oil is currently experiencing renewed buying interest, as evidenced by a 20.03% increase in open interest, reaching 21,437, in conjunction with a price increase. Immediate support is identified at Rs 5,080; a breach of this level could lead to a test of Rs 5,045. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 5,143, and a breakout above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 5,171.