Crude oil prices experienced an increase of 2.31%, closing at Rs 5,223. This uptick was influenced by escalating geopolitical risks, particularly following the U.S. interception of an oil tanker near Venezuela and the persistent tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which have reignited fears regarding possible supply disruptions. Despite these developments, the broader market continues to be influenced by expectations of ample supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, which have largely constrained prices and maintained Brent futures around the $65 per barrel level in the medium term.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has increased its forecast for crude production in 2025 to a historic 13.61 million barrels per day, heightening apprehensions regarding a potential global supply surplus, despite a slight reduction in its outlook for 2026. The International Energy Agency has revised its forecast for next year, now anticipating a significant surplus of 3.84 million bpd, influenced by a modest uptick in demand growth and a slight reduction in supply.

U.S. crude inventories experienced a decline of 1.274 million barrels, surpassing forecasts, highlighted by a significant draw at the Cushing hub. Nevertheless, significant increases in gasoline and distillate inventories underscored a decline in downstream demand. In November, OPEC+ output experienced a slight increase, with demand forecasts for 2026 remaining unchanged, indicating a robust outlook for global economic stability.

From a technical perspective, the market experienced short covering, evidenced by a 9.86% decline in open interest to 19,995, coinciding with a price increase of Rs 118. Crude oil demonstrates support at Rs 5,142; a breach beneath this level would reveal Rs 5,062 as the next target. Resistance is positioned at Rs 5,274, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 5,326.