Gold prices experienced a notable rebound, closing up by 1.28% at Rs 1,36,666, as investor attention returned to ongoing geopolitical and policy-related risks that have propelled bullion to its most robust annual performance in more than forty years. Safe-haven demand was bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions following Russia’s allegations that Ukraine sought to target President Vladimir Putin’s residence, which has tempered expectations for a swift peace agreement. The remarks made by US President Donald Trump regarding the next Federal Reserve Chairman’s obligation to maintain low interest rates and to avoid dissenting with him have further fueled apprehensions about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

On the macro front, US economic data continued to provide support, yet it did not significantly diminish gold’s allure. Pending home sales increased by 3.3% month-on-month in November, surpassing expectations, while weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 214,000, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. Financial markets continue to assign a 16.1% probability to a rate cut at the Fed’s January meeting, thereby maintaining accommodative rate expectations for bullion.

Physical demand signals exhibited a mixed pattern. In November, China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong experienced a remarkable increase of 101.5% month-on-month, reaching a total of 16.16 tonnes. Nonetheless, discounts in India expanded considerably, reaching up to $61 per ounce in the context of heightened prices, whereas discounts in China contracted notably.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 0.84% increase in open interest at 16,153, accompanied by a price gain of Rs 1,724. Support is identified at Rs 1,35,580; a breach of this level could lead to a test of Rs 1,34,490. Resistance is positioned at Rs 1,37,470, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 1,38,270.