Natural gas prices experienced a significant decline, closing down by 4.08% at Rs 294.2. This downturn was influenced by a slight increase in daily production and weather predictions indicating predominantly mild temperatures for the upcoming fortnight, which are anticipated to maintain heating demand below typical seasonal levels. Despite predictions of a short-lived colder period later in January, the prevailing weather patterns leading up to January 23 are expected to exhibit temperatures above the seasonal average across significant regions of the United States. This perspective has influenced short-term demand forecasts, even in the face of favorable export trends.

Storage data, nonetheless, offered a degree of counterbalance. The most recent EIA report indicated a withdrawal that exceeded expectations, registering approximately 114–119 bcf for the week ending January 2. This figure stands in stark contrast to the five-year average draw of 92 bcf and is markedly higher than the 51 bcf draw recorded in the same week last year. Total inventories decreased to approximately 3.261 trillion cubic feet, reflecting a 3.6% reduction compared to the previous year, yet remaining slightly above the five-year average.

LNG exports exhibited resilience, with feedgas flows averaging 18.5 bcfd in January, approaching record levels. In the future, the EIA anticipates that US natural gas production and consumption will reach unprecedented levels by 2025, highlighting sustained supply expansion over the long term.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling activity, as open interest has increased by 9.8% to reach 30,296 contracts, while prices have declined by Rs 12.5. Immediate support is identified at Rs 285.2; a breach beneath this level may lead to a decline towards Rs 276.1. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 309.7, with a movement above possibly occurring.