Crude oil prices concluded the trading session with an increase of 0.94% at Rs 5,569, reflecting market responses to a confluence of supply-side disruptions, optimistic demand forecasts, and geopolitical uncertainties. Prices stabilized following a brief halt in operations at two significant oil fields in Kazakhstan, which has heightened immediate supply apprehensions. Sentiment was further shaped by the resurgence of geopolitical tensions tied to U.S. tariff threats in connection with its efforts to assert control over Greenland.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, increasing it to 930,000 bpd from the previous estimate of 860,000 bpd. This revision is attributed to a more favorable macroeconomic outlook and a reduction in concerns related to tariffs.

While global supply is anticipated to surpass demand, the forecasted surplus has diminished, indicating more constrained balances. In the United States, the Energy Information Administration has forecasted that crude oil production will reach its zenith in 2025, followed by a gradual decline through 2027. Meanwhile, petroleum demand is anticipated to hold steady in the short term. China contributed to a demand increase, as December crude imports surged 17% compared to the previous year, while full-year 2025 imports experienced a 4.4% rise, achieving unprecedented daily levels.

The market is currently experiencing new buying activity, as indicated by a 1.29% increase in open interest, coupled with a price gain of Rs 52. Crude oil currently finds itself with immediate support at Rs 5,481; a breach of this level may lead to a test of Rs 5,392. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 5,633, and a movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 5,696.