Crude oil prices experienced a significant increase, closing with a gain of 3.49% at Rs 5,630. This surge was largely attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed threats toward Iran, which heightened concerns regarding possible disruptions in supply. Further assistance was derived from disruptions in Kazakhstan, where operations at the significant Tengiz oilfield continue to be halted due to a fire incident. Saudi Aramco’s CEO expressed assurance in robust underlying demand, highlighting record global consumption from the previous year and anticipating additional growth in 2026.

The outlook, at its core, continues to exhibit a mixed nature. The International Energy Agency has adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, now anticipating an increase of 930,000 bpd. This revision comes alongside a continued expectation of a significant supply surplus, although it is expected to be somewhat narrower than earlier estimates.

The U.S. EIA anticipates a decline in crude production from record highs in 2026–27, whereas domestic petroleum demand is expected to hold steady. Nonetheless, inventory data exerted pressure on sentiment, as U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks increased significantly beyond expectations, indicating a sense of near-term supply stability. In November, OPEC+ production saw a slight increase, while the group upheld its outlook for consistent demand growth in the context of a robust global economy.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed buying activity, evidenced by a 0.72% increase in open interest concurrent with a price rise of Rs 190. Crude oil currently exhibits immediate support at Rs 5,524; a breach of this level may lead to a test of Rs 5,419. Resistance is identified at Rs 5,692, and a sustained movement above this threshold may lead to further advancements toward Rs 5,755.