Copper prices experienced a significant increase, closing at Rs 1,411.5, reflecting a rise of 6.79%. This movement was largely influenced by diminishing confidence in the U.S. dollar, alongside escalating geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Sentiment saw an uptick following President Trump’s renewed threats of military action against Iran. However, reassurances regarding a robust dollar policy did not succeed in revitalizing the greenback, thereby providing support to dollar-denominated commodities. Further upside was driven by anticipations of additional policy support for China’s ailing property sector, coupled with robust structural demand in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure related to artificial intelligence.
Nevertheless, the fundamentals continue to present a mixed picture. Copper inventories have increased across major exchanges, with stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reaching a seasonal high and COMEX inventories surpassing 500,000 tons for the first time. This trend indicates a movement of metal into the U.S. driven by tariff-related arbitrage opportunities. LME inventories, although generally high, experienced a significant decline in on-warrant stocks due to scheduled large withdrawals, underscoring regional constraints despite sufficient global supply.
On the supply front, Zambia’s output increased by 8% year-on-year, whereas Peru’s production experienced a decline of over 11%, which partially countered the gains made. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for copper in the first half of 2026 to $12,750 per ton, attributing this increase to scarcity premiums observed outside the United States. However, the firm does not anticipate that prices will remain above $13,000.
From a technical perspective, the market is currently experiencing short-covering, evidenced by a 1.4% decline in open interest coupled with significant price increases. Support is identified at Rs 1,336.5; a decline below this level may lead to a test of Rs 1,261.3. Resistance is positioned at Rs 1,483.6, and a breakout could pave the way toward Rs 1,555.5.