Crude oil prices experienced an upward movement, concluding with a rise of 1.49% at Rs 5,709, bolstered by short covering and enhanced demand expectations. Sentiment improved following comments from Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who suggested that global demand is anticipated to increase gradually in March and April, thereby bolstering optimism regarding near-term consumption.

Prices received a boost from a larger-than-anticipated reduction in U.S. crude inventories, with stocks decreasing by 2.296 million barrels contrary to expectations of an increase, while Cushing inventories also saw a decline, indicating tighter immediate supplies. On the policy front, OPEC+ has upheld its decision to maintain output levels for March, thereby ensuring stability in supply expectations.

The International Energy Agency has adjusted its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast upwards to 930,000 bpd, while also reducing supply growth estimates, suggesting a tighter surplus outlook. Meanwhile, the U.S. EIA has projected that crude production will reach its peak in 2025, followed by a gradual decline in 2026–27, which contributes to longer-term support. Nevertheless, the increases were limited by a reduction in geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s indication of advancement in U.S.–Iran negotiations, alongside mixed signals from product inventory data, which showed an uptick in gasoline and distillate stocks.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 4.6% decline in open interest coupled with a price increase of Rs 84. Crude oil currently exhibits immediate support at Rs 5,560; should prices fall below this level, they may subsequently test Rs 5,412. Resistance is identified at Rs 5,811, and a sustained movement above this level may drive prices toward Rs 5,914.