Crude oil concluded the trading session with a 1.66% increase, reaching Rs 5,896, bolstered by escalating geopolitical tensions and indications of robust demand. The market responded to reports indicating that the U.S. might adopt a more stringent approach toward Iran, which could involve intercepting tankers should nuclear negotiations collapse.  Although preliminary discussions seemed promising, market participants continue to express caution, as any potential collapse could hinder Iranian production and restrict global supply.

Concurrently, inventory data presented a nuanced scenario. An industry report indicated a significant increase of 13.4 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles, marking the largest build since November 2023. Official EIA data confirmed a substantial increase of 8.5 million barrels, accompanied by a rise in stocks at Cushing. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks decreased by 2.7 million barrels. Refinery utilization decreased to 89.4%, while net crude imports rose.

On the supply side, U.S. production is anticipated to approach record levels at approximately 13.6 million bpd, while global output is forecasted to exceed demand through 2027. However, the IEA has made a modest upward adjustment to its 2026 demand growth forecast, now projecting an increase of 930,000 bpd.

From a technical perspective, the market exhibits renewed buying interest, as evidenced by a 4.67% increase in open interest, reaching 12,620 lots. Immediate support is identified at Rs 5,824, with a potential breach testing Rs 5,752. Resistance is positioned at Rs 5,972, and a sustained movement beyond this threshold may pave the way toward Rs 6,048.