Crude oil experienced a modest increase of 0.65%, concluding at Rs 5,723. This uptick was bolstered by softer U.S. inflation data, which alleviated macroeconomic concerns and mitigated apprehensions regarding escalating supply levels. Sentiment continues to be influenced by geopolitical tensions, especially concerning U.S.-Iran relations, which may impact flows.

Simultaneously, OPEC+ is said to be contemplating a return to production increases starting in April, as significant members such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE aim to regain market share in anticipation of rising summer demand. The demand outlook continues to exhibit a mixed picture. In its most recent monthly report, the International Energy Agency adjusted its forecast for global demand growth downward but subsequently increased the 2026 growth estimate marginally to 930,000 bpd, indicating a reduced surplus.

OPEC anticipates that India’s oil demand will increase gradually to 5.9 mbpd this year, while domestic production is projected to remain stable at approximately 0.8 mbpd. The Energy Information Administration in the U.S. has indicated a notable increase of 8.5 million barrels in crude inventories, accompanied by a rise in gasoline stocks, whereas distillate levels have decreased. Production is anticipated to moderate somewhat following its peak in 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 32.23% decline in open interest. Support is positioned at Rs 5,662, with additional potential decline toward Rs 5,600. Resistance is identified at Rs 5,764, and a breach above this level may propel prices towards Rs 5,804.