Gold experienced a decline of 0.73%, closing at Rs 154,760, influenced by profit-taking and low trading volumes, as both U.S. and Chinese markets were closed. Market participants exhibited a prudent stance in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on March 18. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that rates might eventually decline, yet he recognized the persistent nature of services inflation.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased by 0.2% in January, bolstering the view that the Federal Reserve might maintain current interest rates for the time being. This comes as market participants anticipate a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts later this year, with the initial reduction expected in July. Geopolitical tensions provided a foundational support, as reports indicate that the U.S. military is gearing up for a potential extended operation against Iran, contingent upon authorization. Meanwhile, ANZ has adjusted its second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 per ounce, attributing this revision to ongoing global uncertainties. Physical markets exhibited a variety of trends.

In India, gold was observed trading at discounts reaching $12 per ounce, a reflection of diminished demand due to elevated prices. Conversely, China experienced consistent purchasing activity in anticipation of the Lunar New Year. As reported by the China Gold Association, China’s overall gold production experienced an increase of 3.35% in 2025, accompanied by a significant rise in ETF holdings.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 2.6% decline in open interest alongside a price drop of Rs 1,135. Support is identified at Rs 153,940, with additional potential decline towards Rs 153,120. Resistance is identified at Rs 155,565, with a potential rebound that may challenge Rs 156,370.