Natural gas declined by 4.96%, closing at Rs 279.5, as predictions of warmer weather reduced expectations for heating demand. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that a significant portion of the central and southern United States is expected to undergo above-average temperatures in the forthcoming two weeks, which will likely alleviate consumption following a period of severe cold. Demand in the Lower 48, including exports, is anticipated to decrease from 141.1 bcfd this week to 125.1 bcfd next week.

On the supply side, production continues to exhibit robustness. Production has averaged 107.4 bcfd thus far in February, reflecting an increase from January levels and approaching December’s record high. The Energy Information Administration reported a 249 bcf storage withdrawal for the week ended February 6—significantly exceeding the five-year average draw, albeit slightly under market expectations.

Total inventories currently amount to 2.214 trillion cubic feet, reflecting a decrease of 4.2% compared to the previous year and a shortfall of 5.5% relative to the five-year average. LNG exports continue to hover around record levels, offering substantial structural demand support. Looking ahead, the EIA anticipates that dry gas production will increase to 110 bcfd by 2026.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 4.03% increase in open interest alongside a decline in prices of Rs 14.6. Immediate support is identified at Rs 272, with potential further decline toward Rs 264.6. Resistance is identified at Rs 284.6, with a potential rebound that may challenge the level of Rs 289.8.