Crude oil experienced a notable increase of 2.45%, closing at Rs 6,058, primarily influenced by rising geopolitical tensions. Concerns heightened following the deployment of U.S. warships in proximity to Iran, as Washington indicated a potential reassessment of its diplomatic strategy regarding Tehran. Simultaneously, negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict between Ukraine and Russia concluded without yielding any advancements, thereby exacerbating uncertainty in critical energy-producing areas.

On the supply front, inventory data presented a varied landscape. The API reports a decline in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks over the past week. Nonetheless, EIA data indicated a significant increase of 8.5 million barrels in crude inventories, accompanied by a rise in gasoline stocks, despite distillates experiencing a draw that exceeded expectations. Crude inventories at Cushing experienced an uptick, whereas refinery utilization declined to 89.4%. Net U.S. crude imports experienced a notable increase.

On a global scale, OPEC appears to be inclined to reinstate output increases starting in April, whereas the IEA has marginally adjusted its 2026 demand growth projection upward, yet continues to anticipate a market surplus. Meanwhile, China’s imports of discounted Russian crude are poised to reach unprecedented levels in February. U.S. production is anticipated to decline following its peak in 2025.

The market exhibits new buying activity, evidenced by a 13.38% increase in open interest. Immediate support is identified at Rs 5,967 and Rs 5,875, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 6,124; a breach of that threshold may propel prices towards Rs 6,189.