Gold increased by 1.33% to close at Rs 156,876, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and new trade measures that bolstered demand for safe-haven assets. U.S. President Donald Trump has declared a 10% tariff on imports from all nations and has issued a warning to Iran to finalize a nuclear agreement within a timeframe of 10–15 days, thereby amplifying global uncertainty. The elevated risk environment bolstered bullion, even in the face of robust U.S. economic indicators.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran countered the strong expectations for rate cuts, referencing robust data. Initial jobless claims decreased to 206,000, while the January FOMC minutes indicated a division among policymakers, with some expressing willingness to consider additional tightening should inflation continue to be a concern. In January, Swiss gold exports experienced an 8% decline, characterized by a significant reduction in shipments to the UK, contrasted by an uptick in flows to China and India in anticipation of the Lunar New Year.

In India, fluctuating prices have maintained a subdued retail demand, with dealers providing discounts reaching as high as $18 per ounce. Nonetheless, inflows into ETFs exhibited robust performance in January. In 2025, China’s gold production experienced a modest increase, whereas overall consumption saw a decline, indicative of diminished jewellery demand juxtaposed with strong investment purchasing activity.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 3.02% decline in open interest. Support levels are identified at Rs 155,380 and Rs 153,880, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 157,890; a breakthrough above this level may challenge Rs 158,900.