Crude oil experienced a slight decline, closing down by 0.2% at Rs 6,045, as a reduction in geopolitical tensions countered otherwise favourable inventory data. Sentiment softened following the progression of U.S. and Iran toward a third round of nuclear discussions in Geneva, alleviating immediate concerns regarding supply disruption. Simultaneously, new uncertainty surfaced regarding trade as President Donald Trump revealed intentions to increase temporary tariffs from 10% to 15%, casting a shadow over the prospects for global growth and fuel demand.

On the supply side, Libya has resumed output at the Sinawan oilfield, thereby restoring approximately 20,000 barrels per day. However, U.S. inventory data presented an optimistic outlook. Crude stocks experienced a significant decline of 9.01 million barrels, marking the largest draw in five months. Additionally, petrol and distillate inventories also saw a greater-than-anticipated reduction.

Cushing stocks declined, indicating a contraction in near-term supply. The International Energy Agency has made a modest upward adjustment to its 2026 global demand growth forecast, now estimating an increase of 930,000 bpd, which suggests a reduced surplus in the market. In the interim, the EIA anticipates a decline in U.S. production following its peak in 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market exhibits new selling pressure, accompanied by a 5.07% increase in open interest. Immediate support is identified at Rs 5,958, with a breach potentially leading prices down to Rs 5,872. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 6,132, and a sustained upward movement may challenge Rs 6,220.