Crude oil experienced a decline of 0.32%, concluding at Rs 5,989, following the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report of the most significant weekly crude inventory increase in three years. U.S. crude inventories surged by 15.99 million barrels to reach 435.8 million in the week ending February 20, significantly surpassing projections of a slight increase. Inventories at Cushing experienced an uptick, whereas distillate stocks recorded a modest increase.

Gasoline inventories, however, experienced a decline that exceeded expectations. In light of the unfavorable inventory data, it is noteworthy that geopolitical tensions have mitigated potential losses. The United States has deployed military forces in the Middle East in response to escalating tensions with Iran concerning its nuclear program. Any escalation has the potential to disrupt supplies from Iran, which is OPEC’s third-largest producer, as well as the broader region.

Saudi Arabia has reportedly devised contingency plans to enhance output in the event that regional flows are disrupted. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is anticipated to deliberate on increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in April as it gradually lifts its voluntary pause. The International Energy Agency has adjusted its forecast for global demand growth in 2026, now projecting an increase of 930,000 barrels per day. The EIA anticipates a decline in U.S. output following its peak in 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 1.61% decrease in open interest, bringing it to 16,162. Support levels are identified at Rs 5,927 and Rs 5,864, whereas resistance is noted at Rs 6,063. A breach of this level could propel prices toward Rs 6,136.