Crude oil increased by 0.64% to close at Rs 6,092, as market participants closely monitored geopolitical developments related to U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations. Indirect negotiations in Geneva ensued after a U.S. military buildup in the region, sustaining concerns regarding potential supply disruptions. Markets are incorporating a geopolitical risk premium of $8–$10 per barrel, primarily associated with apprehensions regarding possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint responsible for approximately 20% of the global oil supply.

Attention is now shifting to the forthcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the group is anticipated to deliberate on a potential increase in output by 137,000 barrels per day in April, thereby concluding a three-month hiatus. The action may enable significant producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reclaim market share, particularly as Russia and Iran persist in dealing with sanctions.

Saudi Arabia has developed contingency plans to enhance output should regional tensions intensify. In terms of data, U.S. crude inventories experienced a substantial increase of nearly 16 million barrels last week, marking the largest build in three years and significantly surpassing forecasts.

In light of this, the International Energy Agency has adjusted its global demand growth forecast upward to 930,000 bpd for the year. Crude is currently experiencing renewed buying interest, as evidenced by a 3.06% increase in open interest, bringing it to 15,430. Support is identified at Rs 5,959, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 6,206. A breach of this level could aim for Rs 6,321.