Natural gas prices experienced a significant decline in the previous session, closing 4.92% lower at Rs 276.1, following Donald Trump’s assertion that the conflict involving Iran might conclude “very soon,” which alleviated some of the risk premium in energy markets. Nevertheless, uncertainty persists at high levels as Qatar, the world’s largest LNG export hub, remains offline, while the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz continues to experience disruptions. Weather conditions have exerted downward pressure on prices.

Forecasts indicating warmer-than-normal temperatures across a significant portion of the United States through late March are anticipated to lead to a decrease in heating demand. Concurrently, production levels continue to exhibit robustness. Data indicate that average gas output in the Lower 48 states has increased to 110.0 billion cubic feet per day in March, compared to 109.2 bcfd in February, approaching the record high of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. The influence of storage data on market sentiment was notable.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. utilities extracted 132 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage during the week ending February 27, resulting in total stockpiles decreasing to 1.886 trillion cubic feet. Notwithstanding the recent drawdown, inventories are currently 6.5% higher than the levels observed a year ago, yet 2.2% lower than the five-year average, suggesting a state of relatively balanced supply conditions.

From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 1.53% decrease in open interest to 19,744, alongside a price decline of Rs 14.3. Natural gas exhibits immediate support at Rs 268.9, with additional downside risks possibly probing Rs 261.7. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 287.4, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 298.7.