Crude oil prices experienced a significant increase in the prior session, closing 9.24% higher at Rs 8,107, driven by escalating supply concerns linked to the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The conflict has interrupted supply chains originating from the Gulf region, constraining the global oil market and bolstering prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that Brent Crude may sustain levels exceeding $95 per barrel in the forthcoming two months, contingent upon the persistence of tensions in the Middle East.

Recent inventory data has also contributed positively to the overall analysis. Data indicated a decline in U.S. crude inventories, with a reduction of 1.68 million barrels for the week concluding on March 6. Gasoline inventories experienced a decrease of 1.84 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks fell by 2.26 million barrels, indicating robust fuel demand. Official data from the U.S. EIA indicated an increase in crude inventories by 3.8 million barrels, reaching a total of 443.1 million barrels, whereas gasoline stocks experienced a significant decline of 3.7 million barrels.

Meanwhile, market projections continue to appear favorable. HSBC has adjusted its forecast for the average Brent price in 2026 to $80 per barrel and WTI to $76, attributing this revision to increasingly constrained global supply conditions. On the production side, Russia indicated a modest decrease in oil output to 9.184 million barrels per day in February, whereas Kazakhstan experienced an uptick in production as output rebounded at the Tengiz Oilfield.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 1.83% decrease in open interest to 17,057, alongside a price increase of Rs 686. Crude oil exhibits immediate support at Rs 7,714, with a breach below this level likely to test Rs 7,320. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 8,363, and a movement beyond this threshold could drive prices toward Rs 8,618.