Natural gas prices experienced a decline of 1.92%, concluding at Rs 291.9, influenced by predictions of more temperate weather and a slight reduction in demand expectations for the upcoming week. Given that temperatures are anticipated to hover around seasonal averages for the remainder of March, it is reasonable to conclude that heating demand will likely remain muted. This may enable utilities to commence the injection of gas into storage sooner than typically observed as the winter withdrawal season progressively concludes. Supply conditions continue to exhibit a state of comfort.

Average natural gas output in the United States. The natural gas production in the Lower 48 states has increased to approximately 109.8 billion cubic feet per day in March, rising from 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in February, as reported by LSEG. This figure approaches the record monthly high of 110.6 bcfd observed in December 2025. LSEG projects that total gas demand in the Lower 48, inclusive of exports, could increase from 112.7 bcfd this week to approximately 124.6 bcfd next week, before experiencing a decline in the subsequent week.

In terms of inventory, the U.S. EIA indicated that energy companies extracted 38 bcf of gas from storage for the week ending March 6, falling short of market expectations which anticipated a withdrawal of 42 bcf. Storage levels are currently 8.3% above the corresponding period from the previous year, yet they remain 0.9% under the five-year average.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as open interest decreased by 1.52% to 19,270 lots, accompanied by a price decline of Rs 5.7. Immediate support is identified at Rs 284.3, and a breach of this threshold may lead to a decline in prices toward Rs 276.8. On the upside, resistance appears to be positioned around Rs 303.6, and a sustained movement above this threshold could result in a challenge of Rs 315.4.