Natural gas prices increased by 0.68% to close at Rs 280.9, buoyed by a temporary decline in production, primarily attributed to freezing conditions impacting pipelines in North Dakota. Notwithstanding this, the overall perspective continues to be ambiguous, as projections for more temperate weather are anticipated to diminish heating requirements in the forthcoming weeks. This atypical combination may enable energy companies to commence the injection of gas into storage during a period that is generally characterized by peak withdrawals.

On the supply side, output throughout the United States. The Lower 48 states have exhibited a relatively robust performance, averaging 109.9 bcfd thus far in March, which is marginally above the levels recorded in February. Nonetheless, daily production has recently decreased by approximately 3.2 bcfd, reaching a six-week low of 107.5 bcfd, indicative of temporary disruptions.

In the future, the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that production will persist in its upward trajectory, forecasting output to attain 109.5 bcfd in 2026 and 112.3 bcfd in 2027. Demand trends continue to exhibit a lack of vigor. Although cooler temperatures in certain regions of the East and Midwest facilitated some withdrawals, a general decline in consumption is anticipated. The EIA reported a 38 bcf draw from storage, which fell short of market expectations, while inventories remain 8.3% above the levels of the previous year.

From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing new buying activity, as open interest has increased by 2.39% to reach 20,611 lots, while prices have appreciated by Rs 1.9. Immediate support is identified at Rs 277.4, with a breach below possibly testing Rs 274, while resistance appears to be around Rs 285.8, and a movement above this level could drive prices toward Rs 290.8.