Crude oil prices exhibited an upward trajectory, concluding with an increase of 1.43% at Rs 8998, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recent threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards aimed at energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have heightened apprehensions regarding potential supply disruptions.

The uncertainty is compounded by attacks on Iran’s facilities and the persistent damage from ongoing conflicts, which have constricted the global supply outlook, particularly due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia is increasing shipments through the Red Sea, with loadings at Yanbu port projected to reach a record 3.8 million barrels per day in March.

In the interim, Libya is redirecting output from the Sharara oilfield in response to a fire incident. In the United States, crude inventories experienced a significant increase, as API data indicated a build of 6.56 million barrels, whereas the EIA reported an uptick of 3.8 million barrels. Nonetheless, reductions in gasoline and distillate inventories suggest consistent downstream demand. Russian output experienced a modest decline, while exports to India are progressively rebounding following a brief relaxation of sanctions.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 25.74% decline in open interest to 8411, alongside a price increase of Rs 127. Crude oil is encountering immediate support at Rs 8591, with a potential breach below that level possibly testing Rs 8184. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 9315, and a sustained upward movement could propel prices towards Rs 9632.