Natural gas prices experienced significant downward pressure, declining 5.35% to close at Rs 272.7, influenced by a reduction in geopolitical tensions and a less favorable demand outlook that impacted market sentiment. The decline was a consequence of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone military action against Iranian targets, leading to a cooling of global energy prices and alleviating immediate supply concerns.

Concurrently, projections indicating a trend towards milder weather in the U.S. for the upcoming weeks have resulted in a reduction of expectations regarding heating demand. On the supply side, production continues to exhibit robust performance. Production in the United States. The average natural gas consumption in the lower 48 states has reached 109.8 billion cubic feet per day in March, an increase from 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in February, and approaching the record high of 110.6 billion cubic feet per day recorded in December 2025.

Unseasonably mild weather has facilitated injections into storage, with the EIA reporting a 35 bcf build—an early indication that the winter withdrawal season is coming to a close. Demand is anticipated to increase marginally in the coming week; however, the overall forecasts continue to be less robust than previous assessments. In the future, the EIA maintains its forecast for increasing production until 2027, despite a slight anticipated decline in domestic consumption in 2026. LNG exports, however, are poised for consistent growth.

The market is currently experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a significant decline in open interest of 35.12%. Immediate support is identified at Rs 263.7, with potential further decline toward Rs 254.6, while resistance levels are established at Rs 289.2 and subsequently at Rs 305.6.