Crude oil prices experienced an increase of 0.77%, concluding at Rs 10,669. This rise was bolstered by intensifying geopolitical tensions, particularly as U.S. President Donald Trump established a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of possible military actions should they fail to comply. Supply concerns have escalated as interruptions in Middle Eastern flows have driven spot premiums for U.S. crude to unprecedented levels, prompting Asian and European refiners to actively pursue alternatives.

In a further indication of optimism, Saudi Aramco has increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia for May delivery, setting a new record premium. OPEC+ has declared an intention to raise output, yet the tangible effects are constrained by production limitations faced by significant member states.

In terms of inventory dynamics, U.S. crude stocks experienced a notable increase of 5.5 million barrels, whereas gasoline and distillate inventories saw a decrease, suggesting a complex demand landscape. Meanwhile, Russia’s oil production experienced a slight decline, while exports are progressively stabilising in the context of evolving trade dynamics. Overall, the market exhibits a pronounced sensitivity to geopolitical developments and supply disruptions, which presently overshadow bearish inventory data.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, characterized by a significant decline in open interest in conjunction with increasing prices. Immediate support is identified at Rs 10,374, with a breach below potentially challenging Rs 10,078. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 10,978, and a movement beyond this threshold could propel prices towards Rs 11,286.