Crude oil experienced a modest increase of 0.81%, closing at Rs 8,933, as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised new concerns regarding the tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East. Market sentiment continued to exhibit tension, as the Strait of Hormuz remains predominantly restricted, accompanied by reports indicating disruptions in tanker traffic. Given that the strait accounts for nearly 20% of global oil and gas flows, any partial blockages maintain heightened supply concerns.

On the fundamentals side, global outlooks are increasingly complex. Goldman Sachs has made a modest adjustment to its near-term price forecasts in light of the recent temporary ceasefire, yet it continues to identify potential upside risks should disruptions endure. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that domestic crude production may experience a gradual decline over the long term, even as it peaks at current levels.

Inventory data presented a nuanced scenario—U.S. crude stocks increased by 3.1 million barrels, whereas gasoline and distillate inventories experienced a decline, indicating consistent fuel demand. In other regions, Russia’s production exhibited a general stability, whereas Kazakhstan indicated a rebound in its output levels.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a slight decline in open interest of 0.01% to 8,361, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 72. Immediate support is identified at Rs 8,675, with a breach below this level likely to pull prices down toward Rs 8,416. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 9,384, and a sustained movement above this threshold could drive prices toward Rs 9,834.