Crude oil prices experienced a decline of 0.20%, settling at Rs 5,480, as persistent oversupply concerns and weak demand prospects weighed on the market. This downward movement was somewhat mitigated by ongoing geopolitical risks that prevented prices from falling further. Global oil inventories, which encompass crude stored on water, experienced a weekly increase throughout September, accumulating a total of 123 million barrels. This trend highlights a significant rise in global stockpiles.

Meanwhile, China’s assertive accumulation of crude reserves further underscored the market’s oversupplied condition. On the geopolitical front, Russia’s Kirishi refinery has ceased operations following a drone attack, potentially leading to uncertainty in short-term supply conditions. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicated that crude inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, reaching 416.5 million barrels, surpassing projections for a more modest build. Gasoline stocks experienced a notable increase of 4.1 million barrels, accompanied by a rise in distillate inventories of 578,000 barrels, which underscores the perspective of diminishing demand.

Refinery utilization has decreased to 91.4%, indicating a decline in processing activity. OPEC’s monthly report, however, upheld its optimistic projection for oil demand growth in 2025, bolstered by a resilient global economy and anticipated stable consumption as the year concludes. In August, OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels per day, primarily due to quota adjustments spearheaded by Saudi Arabia.

Crude oil is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, as evidenced by a 3.29% increase in open interest, reaching 13,969 lots. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 5,419, and a breach beneath this level could lead to a decline towards Rs 5,358. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 5,529, beyond which the market may approach Rs 5,578 in the short term.