Copper prices experienced a modest increase of 0.22%, reaching Rs 993.85, bolstered by supply concerns and anticipations of global monetary easing. The market exhibited resilience as declining treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) posed a risk to smelter margins, raising concerns over diminished refined output. Importers in Japan, South Korea, and Spain have expressed concerns that ongoing low TC/RCs may jeopardize the sustainability of their industries.

Speculation regarding potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts provided additional support, particularly in the context of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions that have intensified economic uncertainty. Disruptions at major mines in Chile and Indonesia have persisted, thereby constraining global output on the supply side. Codelco’s production in August reached its lowest point in more than twenty years, while Indonesia’s Grasberg mine continues to experience restrictions due to a fatal incident and the expiration of its export license.

In September, China experienced a 6.2% decline in copper concentrate imports, totaling 2.59 million tonnes, primarily due to reduced shipments from Indonesia. However, year-to-date figures indicate an increase of 7.7% in imports. In September, imports of refined copper experienced an increase of 14.12%, reaching a total of 485,000 tonnes. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports that the refined copper market experienced a surplus of 57,000 tonnes in July, with projections indicating a surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, subsequently leading to a deficit in 2026.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 5.29% decline in open interest to 5,799, alongside a price increase of Rs 2.15. Copper exhibits immediate support levels at Rs 990.8 and Rs 987.6, with resistance identified at Rs 996.9 and Rs 999.8.