Crude oil prices experienced an increase of 1.94% to Rs 5,151, buoyed by a resurgence of optimism regarding advancements in trade negotiations between the United States and both China and India. Sentiment improved following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who indicated that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured a reduction in oil imports from Russia. Expectations for a significant advancement in U.S.-China negotiations this week in Malaysia have also bolstered demand projections.

Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Energy has revealed intentions to acquire 1 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to replenish stockpiles that were diminished by the emergency sales conducted in 2022. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve presently contains approximately 409 million barrels, out of a total capacity of 700 million barrels. On the supply front, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports increased to a six-month high of 6.41 million bpd in August. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned that global markets could experience a sustained oversupply phase extending through 2026. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels last week, reaching a total of 423.8 million barrels.

In contrast, gasoline and distillate stocks experienced a decline. Refinery runs and utilization rates have decreased significantly, indicating a reduction in domestic processing activity. Meanwhile, OPEC has upheld its projections for oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, with September production increasing by 630,000 bpd to reach 43.05 million bpd. The group anticipates a market that will be nearly balanced in the coming year, projecting a slight deficit of 50,000 bpd should current production levels persist.

In a technical analysis, the market experienced new buying activity, evidenced by a 2.69% increase in open interest, reaching 20,410 contracts, alongside a price increase of Rs 98. Crude oil establishes a support level at Rs 5,121 and Rs 5,090, with resistance identified at Rs 5,186 and Rs 5,220.